AI Isn’t Taking All Jobs, Just the Entry-Level Ones (For Now)
AI's First Victims in the Job Market
Last week, Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab released one of the clearest studies yet on how AI is reshaping the job market. The sharp takeaway: entry-level workers in AI-exposed jobs are already seeing declines in employment, even as overall job growth continues. This signals a turning point in how AI impacts careers, especially for those just starting out.
The numbers:
22–25 year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs have seen a 6% employment decline since late 2022, while older peers in those same jobs grew by 6–9%.
In software development, entry-level jobs are down nearly 20% from their late-2022 peak.
The biggest losses are in roles where AI automates tasks, not where it augments them.
This isn’t about wages (yet), the cuts are showing up in headcount, not pay. Fewer seats at the table mean fewer chances to climb the ladder.
What AI Eats First (And What It Doesn’t Touch Yet)
When I think about my early jobs, most of them could be done by AI today. Data entry, moving numbers from one system to another, even telemarketing and inside sales. Those are exactly the kinds of codified, repeatable tasks AI excels at.
The exception may have been all the physical labor jobs. Those could eventually be done by robots, sure, but most of them still can’t be. Swinging a hammer or crawling under a house with HVAC tools is harder to automate than keying data into a spreadsheet.
The thing is, those physical jobs often just led to more physical jobs. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, after nearly three decades in knowledge work, I sometimes daydream about the simplicity of a role that leaves you physically tired and mentally clear.
But here’s the important difference: if you make the leap from worker to business owner in the trades, AI suddenly becomes your leverage. All the administrative headaches that used to require hiring knowledge workers, such as quoting, scheduling, invoicing, and marketing, can now be handled with software. In other words, AI isn’t replacing the trades, but it is quietly reshaping how trade businesses can scale.
Building Careers in the Age of AI
Here’s what you can do, whether you’re an individual, a manager, or running a team.
1. Redesign Entry-Level Roles
Make them apprenticeship-rich instead of task-heavy. Pair juniors with seniors using AI as a shared tool. Don’t just cut the “easy stuff,” recast it as a training ground.
2. Tilt Toward Augmentation
Audit workflows: is AI automating or augmenting? Shift juniors into the augment bucket. Let them use AI to scale their judgment, not replace their effort.
If you want your whole team to get fluent, we run AI literacy trainings designed to help managers and employees apply AI responsibly in their day-to-day work.
3. Accelerate Tacit Skill Development
Encourage early-career workers to focus on exception handling, cross-functional coordination, and stakeholder empathy. These are the skills AI struggles with, and where career durability lies. For free self-study, check out OpenAI Academy.
4. Showcase AI Fluency
If you’re early in your career, show proof-of-work where AI is a multiplier. “I used Claude to generate three drafts, then ran the client through structured feedback” reads very differently than “Claude did it for me.”
5. Leaders: Protect the Ladder
Write job descriptions and internal programs with deliberate rungs. Explicitly carve out time for juniors to learn, not just to ship. Build systems of mentorship that don’t get cut in the name of efficiency.
💡 Pro tip: Make sure to zoom out. As AI hollows out entry-level white-collar roles, it will leave demand gaps in trades and physical jobs that can’t easily be automated. Even though there have also been some insane advancements in robotics, those industries are going to need people for quite a bit longer. And the entrepreneurs who build businesses in those spaces will have enormous upside.
The Bigger Picture
The story here isn’t that AI is taking all the jobs, but it's clearly removing some of the lower rungs of the ladder. These entry-level positions are often where careers are forged. If the first rungs go missing, the whole ladder weakens.
Waymo just launched autonomous robotaxis in Denver, joining cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, and is expanding into Dallas, Miami, and Washington, D.C (and even New York City!). AI is running rides and clearing the road ahead even before most people realize it. It feels like the gig economy was just born yesterday, but even ride-share drivers may be staring at a shorter-than-expected horizon for that kind of work.
The question worth asking this week:
How can I use AI to create more opportunities, not fewer, for myself and the people around me? And especially those just coming into the job market.
“AI will not replace humans, but people who use AI will replace people who don’t. ”
AI will not replace humans, but people who use AI will replace people who don’t.
Garry Kasparov
Find your next edge,
Eli
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